Our recent meetings with the management teams of Australia’s large iron ore producers have allowed us to gain insights into the fascinating dilemma emerging in the global iron ore market. Right now, market forces remain finely balanced.

On one hand, China’s abrupt change in COVID policy sets the stage for a substantial pickup in steel demand. Will China kick-start an economy slowed by recent lockdowns in the same way they have in the past – through steel-intensive infrastructure spending? Or will they be more resolute around their longer-term desire to transition the economy to one based more on services, allowing primary industries like steel to slow?