Why retailers are in for a tough 12 months

For any student of economic history, it’s self-evident that economies and markets move in cycles. While this reality appears obvious, the elongated cycle that endured over the past decade may have caught investors in an illusion that this decade may revert back to the ‘good times’ – that market price weakness is short, temporary and likely to see another elongated bull market ensue. We remain cautious on retailers but nonetheless find opportunities in select consumer names with a favourable customer base that is, for the most part, insulated from the effect of interest rate increases.