We believe that 2025 has the potential to be the year of the Australian small cap given the cyclical and structural tailwinds in place.
From a cyclical perspective, Australian small caps are well supported by the positive global stimulatory backdrop and moderating domestic inflation outlook which is expected to result in lower interest rates. Historically, interest rate reductions have resulted in positive performance at the smaller end of the domestic equity market and is one of key catalysts we are looking for to see renewed investor interest this year. Given a more favourable domestic macroeconomic backdrop, we expect a better earnings outlook at the smaller end of the market (relative to large caps) over the next couple of years, resulting in a broadening out of stock performance across Australian small cap companies.
From a structural perspective, Australian small caps offer investors early-stage exposure to exciting growth opportunities in emerging industries as well as offering exposure to one of the few remaining inefficiently priced segments of the market to exploit. In addition, the domestic small caps landscape has evolved significantly over the past 15 years, with the index, S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Index, now comprising of higher quality companies with strong balance sheets and improved earnings characteristics. These factors help support the case for a persistent Australian small cap active management premium.
In summary, we see emerging positive signs for Australian small caps given the number of tailwinds as risk appetite returns to the space after a challenging few years although investors need to be selective with selecting the right Australian small caps manager to exploit these opportunities.